delvingbitcoin
Combined summary - Modeling (Social) Consensus About (Cryptographic) Consensus Change
The discussion around Bitcoin's development and the challenges in implementing consensus changes delves into the complexities beyond the technical aspects, such as halving cycles and market speculation.
It suggests that the evolution and stabilization of Bitcoin are significantly influenced by broader factors, including real-world power dynamics and the roles of influential figures and financial stakeholders. These entities are not merely observers but actively engage in shaping Bitcoin's future, potentially steering its trajectory in ways that could diverge from its decentralized ethos. This perspective is supported by a reference to the document Simple Sabotage, which outlines strategies that might be observed or applied within the context of Bitcoin's development. The narrative underscores the importance of considering the intricate interplay between technology, economics, and socio-political forces in understanding Bitcoin's behavior and eventual ossification.
The exploration of consensus changes within Bitcoin draws on Karl Popper's theory of falsification, emphasizing the need for empirical testing to validate scientific theories. This comparison highlights the significant time and challenges involved in introducing and implementing consensus changes in the blockchain realm. The discussion references ZmnSCPxj's Law of Ossification, illustrating the difficulties of modifying consensus rules after a network matures, as shown through the extended timeline required to incorporate Merkelized Abstract Syntax Trees (MAST) into Bitcoin's consensus rules. This example illustrates the inherent challenges within a well-established blockchain framework, suggesting a critical window of opportunity for introducing changes that align with the timing of Bitcoin's halvening events.
Furthermore, the halvening event's role in Bitcoin's economic structure is examined, noting its impact on supply, demand, and price. This cycle not only attracts new investors but also integrates them into the consensus process, where their economic influence becomes crucial, especially during chainsplits. The necessity for unanimous agreement in changes highlights the challenges in maintaining a unified direction and avoiding network fragmentation. The interaction between the halvening cycle and consensus dynamics introduces the 'Law of Ossification', suggesting that achieving consensus on future changes becomes increasingly difficult with each halvening due to the growing community size and the effort required to convince new members of proposed changes. This evolving dynamic points to a gradual stiffening of Bitcoin's protocol over time, encapsulating the concept of "ZmnSCPxj's Law Of Ossification" and highlighting the complexities of technological evolution and adaptation in decentralized networks.